Each variable is scored 0–10 (10 = maximum heat). The category average is calculated, then all six category averages are converted to a composite percentage: (sum of averages ÷ 60) × 100, producing a score on a 0–100 scale. Every input is sourced. Disagree with the data? Do the math yourself — that's the point.
| Performance Trajectory | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Year-over-year win trend | 7 → 5 → 4 (declined every year) | 9 |
| Big Ten record | 10-17 (.370) | 8 |
| Record vs. ranked opponents | 2-11 (.154) | 9 |
| Bowl eligibility | 0 bowls in last 2 seasons | 8 |
| Longest losing streak | 6 games (2025) | 8 |
| Category avg | 8.4 / 10 | |
| Financial Efficiency | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Annual salary | $7.825M (21st nationally) | 7 |
| Cost per win | $1,489,000 | 9 |
| Cost per Big Ten win | $2,530,000 | 9 |
| Salary vs. peers at similar record | Worst W% among coaches making $7M+ | 9 |
| Category avg | 8.5 / 10 | |
| Economic Damage | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Season ticket decline | 42,197 → 38,082 (-10%) | 7 |
| Scanned attendance decline | ~61,389 → ~51,980 (-15%) | 7 |
| CROWE Report projected annual loss | $280M statewide | 8 |
| Secondary market ticket prices | Season opener under $10 | 8 |
| Alcohol sales decline | -19.2% through 5 home games | 6 |
| Category avg | 7.2 / 10 | |
| Institutional Signals | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| No contract extension | Fickell declined routine extension after 4-8 season | 8 |
| AD public statements | "Significantly elevating investment" / "highest level" | 7 |
| SP+ ranking entering 2026 | #61 nationally, #15 in Big Ten | 7 |
| Vegas over/under | 6.5 wins (some books at 5.5) | 7 |
| Category avg | 7.25 / 10 | |
| Resources vs. Results | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 portal class | #5 nationally (31 transfers) | 3 |
| Schedule difficulty 2026 | Easiest in Big Ten | 8 |
| QB investment | Colton Joseph, $2M+ NIL deal | 3 |
| Category avg | 4.7 / 10 | |
| Staff Stability | ||
| Variable | Data Point | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| OL coach turnover | 4 coaches in 4 years | 9 |
| WR coach turnover | Different coach every year | 9 |
| Original staff retention | ~30-40% remain from 2023 | 9 |
| Category avg | 9.0 / 10 | |
Scale:
0–20: Ice Cold — job fully secure
21–40: Lukewarm — minor concerns
41–60: Warming — real questions emerging
61–80: Hot — one bad season from termination ← Fickell is here
81–100: Engulfed — should already be fired
Last updated: April 1, 2026 (Preseason)
This score will be recalculated after every game during the 2026 season. A 3-0 start drops this into the 30s. A 1-2 start pushes it past 48.
The complete data-driven argument behind the 8-win threshold.